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Creators/Authors contains: "Marshall, John"

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  1. We describe CATKE, a parameterization for fluxes associated with small‐scale or “microscale” ocean turbulent mixing on scales between 1 and 100 m. CATKE uses a downgradient formulation that depends on a prognostic turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) variable and a diagnostic mixing length scale that includes a dynamic convective adjustment (CA) component. With its dynamic convective mixing length, CATKE predicts not just the depth spanned by convective plumes but also the characteristic convective mixing timescale, an important aspect of turbulent convection not captured by simpler static CA schemes. As a result, CATKE can describe the competition between convection and other processes such as shear‐driven mixing and baroclinic restratification. To calibrate CATKE, we use Ensemble Kalman Inversion to minimize the error between 21 large eddy simulations (LESs) and predictions of the LES data by CATKE‐parameterized single column simulations at three different vertical resolutions. We find that CATKE makes accurate predictions of both idealized and realistic LES compared to microscale turbulence parameterizations commonly used in climate models. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available April 1, 2026
  2. Abstract The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is associated with a zonal band of strong precipitation that migrates meridionally over the seasonal cycle. Tropical precipitation also migrates zonally, such as from the South Asian monsoon in Northern Hemisphere summer (JJA) to the precipitation maximum of the west Pacific in Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF). To explore this zonal movement in the Indo-Pacific sector, we analyze the seasonal cycle of tropical precipitation using a 2D energetic framework and study idealized atmosphere–ocean simulations with and without ocean dynamics. In the observed seasonal cycle, an atmospheric energy and precipitation anomaly forms over South Asia in northern spring and summer due to heating over land. It is then advected eastward into the west Pacific in northern autumn and remains there due to interactions with the Pacific cold tongue and equatorial easterlies. We interpret this phenomenon as a “monsoonal mode,” a zonally propagating moist energy anomaly of continental and seasonal scale. To understand the behavior of the monsoonal mode, we develop and explore an analytical model in which the monsoonal mode is advected by low-level winds, is sustained by interaction with the ocean, and decays due to the free tropospheric mixing of energy. Significance StatementRegional concentrations of tropical precipitation, such as the South Asian monsoon, provide water to billions of people. These features have strong seasonal cycles that have typically been framed in terms of meridional shifts of precipitation following the sun’s movement. Here, we study zonal shifts of tropical precipitation over the seasonal cycle in observations and idealized simulations. We find that land–ocean contrasts trigger a monsoon with concentrated precipitation over Asia in northern summer and near-surface eastward winds carry this precipitation into the west Pacific during northern autumn in what we call a “monsoonal mode.” This concentrated precipitation remains over the west Pacific during northern winter, as further migration is impeded by the cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and easterly winds of the east Pacific. 
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  3. Abstract The evolution and expansion of land plants brought about one of the most dramatic shifts in the history of the Earth system — the birth of modern soils — and likely stimulated massive changes in marine biogeochemistry and climate. Multiple marine extinctions characterized by widespread anoxia, including the Late Devonian mass extinction around 372 million years ago, may have been linked to terrestrial release of the nutrient phosphorus driven by newly-rooted landscapes. Here we use recently published Devonian lake records as variable inputs in an Earth system model of the coupled carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus-oxygen-sulfur biogeochemical cycles to evaluate whether recorded changes to phosphorus fluxes could sustain Devonian marine anoxia sufficient to drive mass extinction. Results show that globally scaled increases in riverine phosphorus export during the Late Devonian mass extinction could have generated widespread marine anoxia, as modeled perturbations in carbon isotope, temperature, oxygen, and carbon dioxide data are generally consistent with the geologic record. Similar results for large scale volcanism suggest the Late Devonian mass extinction was likely multifaceted with both land plants and volcanism as contributing factors. 
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  4. The evolution of land plant root systems occurred stepwise throughout the Devonian, with the first evidence of complex root systems appearing in the mid-Givetian. This biological innovation provided an enhanced pathway for the transfer of terrestrial phosphorus (P) to the marine system via weathering and erosion. This enhancement is consistent with paleosol records and has led to hypotheses about the causes of marine eutrophication and mass extinctions during the Devonian. To gain insight into the transport of P between terrestrial and marine domains, we report geochemical records from a survey of Middle and Late Devonian lacustrine and near-lacustrine sequences that span some of these key marine extinction intervals. Root innovation is hypothesized to have enhanced P delivery, and results from multiple Devonian sequences from Euramerica show evidence of a net loss of P from terrestrial sources coincident with the appearance of early progymnosperms. Evidence from multiple Middle to Late Devonian sites in Greenland and northern Scotland/Orkney reveal a near-identical net loss of P. Additionally, all sites are temporally proximal to one or more Devonian extinction events, including precise correlation with the Kačák extinction event and the two pulses associated with the Frasnian/Famennian mass extinction. For all sites, weathering, climate, and redox proxy data, coupled with nutrient input variability, reveal similar geochemical responses as seen in extant lacustrine systems. Orbitally forced climatic cyclicity appears to be the catalyst for all significant terrestrial nutrient pulses, which suggests that expansion of terrestrial plants may be tied to variations in regional and global climate. 
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  5. We infer circumpolar maps of stress imparted to the ocean by the wind, mediated by sea-ice, in and around the Seasonal Ice Zone (SIZ) of Antarctica. In the open ocean we compute the wind stress using surface winds from daily atmospheric reanalyses and applying bulk formulae. In the presence of sea ice, the stress imparted to the underlying ocean is computed from satellite observations of daily ice concentration and drift velocity assuming, first, that the ocean geostrophic currents beneath are negligible, and then including surface geostrophic ocean currents inferred from satellite altimetry. In this way maps of surface ocean stress in the SIZ are obtained. The maps are discussed and interpreted, and their importance in setting the circulation emphasised. Just as in parallel observational studies in the Arctic, we find that ocean currents significantly modify the stress field, the sense of the surface ageostrophic flow and thus pathways of exchange across the SIZ. Maps of Ekman pumping reveal broad patterns of upwelling within the SIZ enhanced near the sea ice edge, which are offset by strong narrow downwelling regions adjacent to the Antarctic continent. 
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  6. Enhanced Antarctic ice sheet mass loss yields ocean surface freshening, cooling and sea ice expansion, which result in changes in the atmospheric conditions. Using the Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) multi‐model ensemble, we study the atmospheric response to a 100‐year idealized freshwater release of 0.1 Sv. All models simulate a surface‐intensified tropospheric cooling and lower‐stratospheric warming south of 35°S. Tropospheric cooling is attributed to sea ice expansion and the associated albedo enhancement in winter and a colder sea surface in summer. This cooling yields a downward displacement of the tropopause, reduced stratospheric water vapor content and ultimately warming around 200 hPa. An enhanced southward eddy heat flux explains warming at 10–100 hPa during austral winter. Despite a temporally (and spatially) uniform prescribed freshwater flux, a prominent sea ice seasonal cycle and atmosphere dynamics result in a distinct seasonal pattern in the occurrence and magnitude of the temperature responses. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available May 28, 2026
  7. Abstract Antarctic glacial meltwater is thought to play an important role in determining large-scale Southern Ocean climate trends, yet recent modeling efforts have proceeded without a good understanding of how its vertical distribution in the water column is set. To rectify this, here we conduct new large-eddy simulations of the ascent of a buoyant meltwater plume after its escape from beneath an Antarctic ice shelf. We find that the meltwater’s settling depth is primarily a function of the buoyancy forcing per unit width of the source and the ambient stratification, consistent with the classical theory of turbulent buoyant plumes and in contrast to previous work that suggested an important role for centrifugal instability. Our results further highlight the significant role played by localized variability in stratification; this helps explain observed interannual variability in the vertical meltwater distribution near Pine Island Glacier. Because of the vast heterogeneity in mass loss rates and ambient conditions at different Antarctic ice shelves, a dynamic parameterization of meltwater settling depth may be crucial for accurately simulating high-latitude climate in a warming world; we discuss how this may be developed following this work, and where the remaining challenges lie. 
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  8. null (Ed.)
    The ocean is a reservoir for CFC-11, a major ozone-depleting chemical. Anthropogenic production of CFC-11 dramatically decreased in the 1990s under the Montreal Protocol, which stipulated a global phase out of production by 2010. However, studies raise questions about current overall emission levels and indicate unexpected increases of CFC-11 emissions of about 10 Gg ⋅ yr −1 after 2013 (based upon measured atmospheric concentrations and an assumed atmospheric lifetime). These findings heighten the need to understand processes that could affect the CFC-11 lifetime, including ocean fluxes. We evaluate how ocean uptake and release through 2300 affects CFC-11 lifetimes, emission estimates, and the long-term return of CFC-11 from the ocean reservoir. We show that ocean uptake yields a shorter total lifetime and larger inferred emission of atmospheric CFC-11 from 1930 to 2075 compared to estimates using only atmospheric processes. Ocean flux changes over time result in small but not completely negligible effects on the calculated unexpected emissions change (decreasing it by 0.4 ± 0.3 Gg ⋅ yr −1 ). Moreover, it is expected that the ocean will eventually become a source of CFC-11, increasing its total lifetime thereafter. Ocean outgassing should produce detectable increases in global atmospheric CFC-11 abundances by the mid-2100s, with emission of around 0.5 Gg ⋅ yr −1 ; this should not be confused with illicit production at that time. An illustrative model projection suggests that climate change is expected to make the ocean a weaker reservoir for CFC-11, advancing the detectable change in the global atmospheric mixing ratio by about 5 yr. 
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  9. null (Ed.)